Earnings Before Everything

Earnings and cash flows are two of the recurring themes in my classes (Securities analysis, corporate finance, and my student-managed fund). But, unfortunately, there are multiple "flavors" of each. For earnings (profits), there's gross, operating, and net, and for cash flows , there's free cash flow to equity (or to the firm), cash from operations, free cash flow from operations, and (for some folks), EBITDA.

Now I have a new one: "EBITDAGSAC", or "Earnings before Depreciation, Amortization, General , Sales, and Administrative, and Cost of goods sold". It's got a nice ring to it.

Or, as we used to call it, Sales (or Revenue).

HT: Long or Short Capital.

Stock Tickers Bleg

I'm working on a project with my students, and need a list of the tickers of ALL publicly traded stocks. Does anyone out there have such a list (or know who does)?

Dartmouth's 'Hostile' Environment'

Here's a great piece in today's Wall Street Journal (off the Opinionjournal.com site, so it's free).

Often it seems as though American higher education exists only to provide gag material for the outside world. The latest spectacle is an Ivy League professor threatening to sue her students because, she claims, their "anti-intellectualism" violated her civil rights.

Priya Venkatesan taught English at Dartmouth College. She maintains that some of her students were so unreceptive of "French narrative theory" that it amounted to a hostile working environment. She is also readying lawsuits against her superiors, who she says papered over the harassment, as well as a confessional exposé, which she promises will "name names."

The trauma was so intense that in March Ms. Venkatesan quit Dartmouth and decamped for Northwestern. She declined to comment for this piece, pointing instead to the multiple interviews she conducted with the campus press.

Ms. Venkatesan lectured in freshman composition, intended to introduce undergraduates to the rigors of expository argument. "My students were very bully-ish, very aggressive, and very disrespectful," she told Tyler Brace of the Dartmouth Review. "They'd argue with your ideas." This caused "subversiveness," a principle English professors usually favor.

Ms. Venkatesan's scholarly specialty is "science studies," which, as she wrote in a journal article last year, "teaches that scientific knowledge has suspect access to truth." She continues: "Scientific facts do not correspond to a natural reality but conform to a social construct."

Read the whole thing here.

I think Professor Venkatesan would like my students - they tend not to challenge ideas much (or participate in class much at all).

But seriously - this lady is destined to end up as the punchline on a bad joke. Can you imagine a professor being upset because students actually challenged his/her teachings in class? That's a perfect opportunity to get them engaged, discussing, and thinking critically. That's the stuff we work for.

I get the impression that that's not what she had in mind. I guess it's not just students who are "Snowflakes" (i.e. each special, unique in their own way, and deserving of kudos for every little accomplishment).

I'll leave it to my readers to come up with the "appropriate" responses.

Sorry - gotta go before I start ranting. Must. Drink. Coffee.

update: Mike Munger provides a nifty link to a treasure trove of info on this case from Ivygate. I really should get back to work, but this is like watching a train wreck, but with PoMo nonsence trown in as a bonus.

Another New Academic Finance Blog

I think it's good practice to mention new blogs of note -- I got some mention by established bloggers early on, and it helped a lot. So, I try pass the favor along and mention new blogs as I come across them - particularly when they're finance or academic in nature.

In this case, here's one that's both: Finance Clippings, run by Richard Warr, a finance professor at North Carolina State University.

I've read Richard's work (and enjojed it) for years, and have even crossed paths with him at conferences on a number of occasions. He seems to have both the academic chops and personal characteristics necessary to make for a good blog. Based on his first few posts, he seems to be off to a good start, and is focusing on material that he'll use in his classes.

So welcome to the Blogosphere, Richard.

Now everyone go check out his blog -- it's been added to the blogroll.

Options and The Volatility Risk Premium

Classical mean-variance portfolio theory assumes that investors are risk-averse. Here's a paper that examines the "volatility risk" premium using options data, titled "The Price of Market Voilatility Risk", by Jefferson Duarte and Christopher Jones:

We analyze the volatility risk premium by applying a modified two-pass Fama-MacBeth procedure to the returns of a large cross section of the returns of options on individual equities. Our results provide strong evidence of a volatility risk premium that is increasing in the level of overall market volatility. This risk premium provides compensation for risk stemming both from the characteristics of the option contract and the riskiness of the underlying equity. We also show with a large scale Monte Carlo simulation that measurement error in option prices and violations of arbitrage bounds induce highly economically significant biases in the mean returns of options. In fact, our simulation results demonstrate that biases can be up to several percentage points per day. These large biases can lead researchers to faulty conclusions with respect to both the magnitude of the volatility risk premium and the sign of expected option returns.

Read the whole thing here.

While their paper does a good job of showing how option returns in academic studies can be biased by bid-ask spread, they also give some nice results on just how big the "volatility premium" may be (they're not the first to find this, but I like their results nonetheless).

The following table from the paper, shows mean returns on S&P 500 index options at various maturities (Short, Medium, Long) and degrees of of moneyness (In The Money, At The Money, Out of The Money). The figures are in basis points/day and are adjusted for bid-ask spread biases. What I found most striking were the results for short positions on short-term deep out-of-the-money puts (4% return per day) and deep OTM calls (3-9% per day).

Now THAT's definitely a table suitable for use in class.

HT: CXO Advisory Group

Informed traders and Optons Markets

If you were an informed trader, would you trade in the options market or in the market for the underlying asset? Finance theory says you'd trade in the options market because of increased leverage.

Now here's another paper that supports this idea. In their March 2008 paper Xiaoyan Zhang, Rui Zhao and Yuhang Xing look at whether relatively expensive put options can be used as "bad news" indicators. Here's the abstract of their paper:

The shape of the volatility smirks has significant cross-sectional predictive power for future equity returns. Stocks exhibiting the steepest smirks in their traded options underperform stocks with the least pronounced volatility smirks in their options by around 15% per year on a risk-adjusted basis. This predictability persists for at least six months, and firms with steepest volatility smirks are those experiencing the worst earnings shocks in the following quarter. The results are consistent with the notion that informed traders with negative news prefer to buy out-of-the-money put options, and that the equity market is slow in incorporating the information embedded in volatility smirks.

Read the whole thing here.

In case you're not familiar with the term, the volatility "smile" refers to the phenomenon that implied volatility increases for options that are further out of the money. If the increase in implied volatility is greater on one side than on the other, the pattern is known as a volatility "smirk". In the case of this paper the smirk is used as an indicator of the degree to which puts or calls are relatively expensive. For example, if calls are relatively more expensive, that is taken as an indicator that informed traders have been buying calls because they have positive information about a stock, with expensive puts being an indicator that traders possess bad news.

In addition to predicting subsequent returns, the authors also find that firms with the most expensive put options are more likely to have the worst negative earnings shocks in the following quarter.

All in all, a pretty cool paper that indicates how information from one market can predict movements in another.

HT: CXO Advisory Group

An Ethical Weekend

Spent the weekend going through the Ethics material for the CFA Level 2 exam. It's pretty dry, and nary a number in over 200 pages of text. But, the Level 2 exam is weighted about 10% on the exam, so it's got to be done.

Now all I have is a quick review of Portfolio Management (I've gone through it once already, but after 299 pages of Ethics, I needed to see some numbers) and then it's on to Derivatives (for the first time). So, with luck, I should be done with my first pass through the Level 2 material with over 5 weeks to go.

The next topic after Derivatives will be a review of Financial Statement Analysis. Although I've put some time in, it's still my weakest topic, and it could comprise a quarter of the exam.

Is Valuation Driven More By Cash Flows or Discount Rates?

Here's one for my next semester's Security Analysis class: In "What Drives Stock Price Movement?" Long Chen and Xinlei Zhao use analyst forecast and stock market data to examine whether stock price changes are associated more with changes in cash flows or discount rates. Here's the abstract (note: the emphasis is mine):

A central issue in asset pricing is whether stock prices move due to the revisions of expected future cash flows or/and of expected discount rates, and by how much of each. Using consensus cash flow forecasts, we show that there is a significant component of cash flow news in stock returns, whose importance increases with investment horizons. For horizons over three years, the importance of cash flow news far exceeds that of discount rate news. These conclusions hold at both firm and aggregate levels, and diversification only plays a secondary role in affecting the relative importance of cash flow/discount rate news. The conventional wisdom that cash flow news dominates at the firm level but discount rate news dominates at the aggregate level is largely a myth driven by the estimation methods. Finally, stock returns and cash flow news are positively correlated at both firm and aggregate levels.

HT: CXO Advisory Group

The Semester Winds Down

It's that time of the year - I have one more day of classes, followed by final exams. My student-managed investment fund did a bang-up job on their end-of-semester presentation to the advisory board, so that's another big item to cross off the list.

So now all I have to do is write a couple of final exams, grade them and some final projects, and start my summer.

The only downside to the end of the spring semester is that there are always a couple of students who thought they were "graduating seniors" who found out only the second part of the phrase is correct. But for the most part, they already know where they stand.

Now it's on to summer research and studying for the CFA level 2 exam (only 42 days until the big one).

Empirical Finance Research

When Financial Rounds first started out, a number of the bigger names in the finance/econ blogoshpere were nice enough to mention this site. So, whenever possible I try to pay the favor "forward" by doing the same for newer blogs. The latest new finance blog of note is titled Empirical Finance Research, which is intended to (in the authors' own words):

1. Highlight research from the academic finance archives that may be useful to investors.
2. Serve as a venue for the contributors to share our thoughts and insights with others who enjoy empirical finance research.
3. Act as an outlet for authors or readers who would like to showcase their latest research.

It's authored by three guys (two of which are currently pursuing Ph.D.s in finance), and focuses on investment applications of current academic finance research. Good job, gentlemen, and keep up the posting. After all, the world needs more blogs run by finance PhDs.