Explaining market moves are just easy after-the-fact rationalizations. In weak macroeconomic conditions, a market fall will trigger the line: "market falls on economic fears." And a rise will invite: "market rises on interest rate hopes." It's the same macroeconomic story.click here for the whole post.
There are several clues to this pin-the-tail-on-donkey approach. One of the best is "after". It hints at causality without stating it. Why not say: "market rose today after I missed my bus"?
Paradoxically, of all the explanations the dead trees give for market moves, they never offer two of the most likely ones. You never see the stories: "market rises but it's just random noise." Or "market rises because risk aversion declines
It reminds me of the classic coin flipping example in A Random Walk Down Wall Street. An economist made a chart that started at $50. He then flipped a coin multiple times. Each time it came up heads, he increased the stock's price by $0.01. Each time it came out heads, he decreased the stock's price by $0.01.
When he gave the chart to a technical trader (while telling him it was of a stock), the trader said it was a clear buying signal .